For Shame, Tim Kurkjian

I was reading Tim Kurkjian's article on mental mistakes in baseball and found this quote to be humorous:

"Kids today aren't afraid because they don't take responsibility for their mistakes anymore. I see that in the game every single day."

This comment would carry a whole lot more weight if it were coming from any other source besides Ron Washington. That's right, Ron Washington who received no punishment or penalties for testing positive for using cocaine. Cocaine. An article about how the young players in the league aren't students of the game because they forgot how many outs there were is fine. If that's the angle Kurkjian wants to take, more power to him. But, for the love of God, do not, under any circumstances, feature a quote from Ron Washington about taking responsibility to prove your point. As Kurkjian ends his article talking about players' mental errors making him worry, stories such as this one (and dozens of others on so-called news and sports news websites) make me worry about the deteriorating state of sportswriting in America.

Trouble Play

Victor Martinez in the new Jim Rice. No, I don’t mean he’s one of the most feared hitters in baseball, with herculean legs, always carrying people around in his arms and complaining about uniforms not being skin tight. What I mean to say is he hits into waaayyy too many double plays.

In my eyes Rice was always a HOFer, and you probably couldn’t name 10 guys that were better at hitting for power and average, but damn was he wont to hit into double plays. From 1982 to 1985, Rice hit into 131 of them. His total of 29 in 1982 gave him the 6th highest total in a single season since they started keeping track of the stat in 1939 (1933 in the National League). In 1983 he hit in to 31, the 4th highest total ever. The next season, in 1984, he set the all-time mark with 36 GIDP. In ’85, he almost did it again, finishing with 35. The next closest player in major league history stands at 32.

But hey, he was a cleanup hitter and he scorched the ball. And if you look at the career leaders in GIDP (Double Plays Grounded Into) is looks like a Hall of Fame ballot. Yaz, Henry Aaron, Eddie Murray, Ripken- Even the speedy and ephemeral Roberto Clemente is in the top 15 all-time. It’s not a total knock on a player if they hit into lots of double plays.

Unless of course you’re batting .247 and your manager is opting to start Jason Varitek over you a couple times a week. That’s Victor Martinez we’re talking about. The same Victor Martinez who has stimulated 8 double plays in only 77 plate appearances. Last year Victor had 588 at bats, which was a career high for him, and he hit into 17 double plays. This year, even if he only gets, say, 500 at bats, he’s on pace to ground into 52 double plays. Needless to say, that would crush Jim Rice’s record and probably stand up until the Apocalypse, whether it’s 2012 or 2416.

It’s important to remember that hitting into a lot of double plays doesn’t guarantee you a spot in the Hall of Fame. Jason Kendall has always been one of the best at it. So has Garrett Atkins. Hopefully some day soon some reporter some where does call Victor Martinez the new Jim Rice, and hopefully it’s for his power and production, and not for ability to hit into rally killers at an unparalleled rate.

Grade-F Sizemore

Last night the Tribe put up 9 runs against the Angels and collected 18 hits. Everyone on the team had at least one hit, and seven players had two or more. Oh, everyone except one guy: Grady Sizemore.

Going into the 2010 season, ESPN ranked Sizemore 14th overall in the American League, meaning they projected him to be the 14th most valuable player in the AL on the Player Rater at seasons end. He was projected as the 4th most valuable outfielder, and ranked 11th among batters.

Yahoo! was even more optimistic, ranking Grady 11th overall in the AL, and positing a little green upwards arrow next to his name, predicting that soon he'd be shooting up the board to an even meatier spot.

Fanball.com was drooling in expectations, ranking him 8th overall in the AL.

On February 22nd, 2009, over a month before last year's season started, I worked out a trade with another manager, over the phone, to get Grady. I gave up Bobby Abreu (he had been shipped to the Angels in the off season) and an 8th Rd Draft pick that became Pat Burrell.

At the time, it looked like a steal. A 26-year-old All-star coming off a 30/30 season and about to enter his prime for a 35-year-old outfielder and Pat Burrell.

Ignoring Burrell completely, the trade has not worked out. Grady was hurt most of last season and struggled when he did play. Abreu had a terrific season and in 2010 he's picked up right where he left off.

So far in 2010, Grady is batting .191 with no homers, only 1 steal, and he's struck out 16 times.

ESPN has him pegged for 24 homers, 25 SB, and 97 runs. He best get crackin'.

Based on his various rankings and ADP, and excluding injured guys, I'd say he's the biggest bust of the year so far.

Unless you count this one.

NOTE ADDED 5/08/10: It looked like Sizemore was finally breaking out of his slump last night, hitting a towering homer to right in his first at bat and singling in his next plate appearance. Mother nature would not let it be though, as torrential rain halted the match before the 5th inning could even begin. The stats were lost in the douwnpour and the game was postponed, making Grady's first dinger and 2-for-2 start unofficial and uncounted.

Listening To Shakira, Avoiding Doing Work

Sitting here at work, desiring to do anything but work-related activities, I've looked over a lot of baseball and Sox stats/articles. I heard grumblings that the Red Sox have signed a 23-year-old Cuban catcher. Unfortunately, the article is available only to ESPN Insiders. Insiders, in this case, is code for "doofs who actually pay money to ESPN to gain access to an extra fifteen articles a month that don't say much of anything." Either way, I wish I could read this particular Insider article. Instead, I read some blogs on ESPNBoston. There is a cool diary entry written by Daniel Bard on there. I'm not sure how much outside editing goes into these entries of his but, technically speaking, his writing ability overshadows every hack writer that pukes up a sports story for MSNBC. Anyway, here we go:

Josh Wreck-It: That's a terrible topic heading (but better than my second-best option of Buttercup Squash Beckett, which I'd have had a real hard time explaining), but Josh is wrecking his ERA at an alarming rate right now. In fact, if the Sox ace were to throw back-to-back-to-back-to-back complete game shutouts it would only lower his ERA to 3.20. But there's nothing to worry about because after five starts last season his ERA was exactly the same as it is right now (7.22, gross). So, a fantastic rebound is imminent.

Josh Check-It: But there is something to worry about. My continued non-work-related-web-surfing led me to an interesting graph illustrating what one of Beckett's problems might be:

(credit to ESPNBoston or whomever for this image)

Not only is Josh leaving his changeup up in the zone, as you can see from my stolen/plagiarized chart, but he's also throwing this crummy changeup 14 percent of the time (only 8.6% last season). So, maybe if Josh stops throwing the change his numbers will improve? I hope so, but there's another troubling piece of information that I found as well. Beckett's career average for swinging strikes coming into this season was 9.9%. So, essentially, opposing hitters swing and miss at one out of every ten pitches that he throws. And what about this year, so far? Well, now only 7.4% of Josh's offerings are swung on and missed. That is bad news. I mentioned the striking similarities between this season's and last season's awful beginnings: 28 2/3 innings, 23 earned runs, similar hit totals (36 and 37). The 2009 strikeout total, though, was still an impressive 31. Right now Beckett has K'd only twenty batters. Gulp.

Even Scarier: Adrian Beltre leads the team with his .309 batting average?!

The "D" Is For Durability: Don't look now, but J.D. Drew has played in 19 of the Sox' twenty games this season. Okay, some of you out there are thinking, "But I hate that effing loser; he's hitting .182!" I'll counter by saying that his .308/.353/.846 line with runners in scoring position gives him the second-highest OPS on the team in those clutch situations. I'd also like to point out that his 10 runs batted in are third on the team overall.

Roll of the Dice-K: As an owner (once a proud owner) of Daisuke Matsuzaka in two separate fantasy leagues, I'm excited for the return of the nibbling starter. Imagine if he comes back and looks good! How awesome would it be for the Sox (not to mention Momaw Navaughn) if Dice-K looked like WBC Dice-K or even 2008 Dice-K? The answer is very awesome.

Best Team Ever: In the spirit of doling out some V-tek love, I'm going to spit out a fun stat for you all. A team of nine Jason Variteks would score 12.26 runs per game. That's right.

Zaun

Next to A. J. Pierzynski, Greg Zaun is probably the least liked catcher in the majors. It could be his face. Or maybe it's his diminutive stature and his face. Fans like Pedroia because he's so talented and he tries hard- and he's cute in a sort of pitiful way. Zaun just looks like a scamp you'd see kicking around the docks.
That being said, I had to feel bad for him after seeing this video.

The best part is when Zaun is walking to the mound and Gallardo is trying not to laugh. Apparently Zaun had some muscle spasms after a collision at the plate. Perhaps he should spasm more often though as he had a career day with the bat, going 4-for-4 with 5 RBI. Though he was facing the Pirates, so you have to scale his stats. In reality it was more like a 2-for-3 with 3 RBI performance.

V-tek Goes Bonkers in Canada

I had dinner plans tonight, so I figured by the time I found a radio the game would be ending or over. When I got in the car and turned on XM I was surprised to discover it was only the top of the 6th inning. I had just tuned in to quite the pitcher's duel.

Josh Beckett and Dana Eveland, the Blue Jays starter, each lasted just three innings. Beckett allowed 8 runs, all earned, giving up 9 hits- four of them doubles and one a HR. Eveland was almost as bad: one less hit, one less run, and the same number of walks and Ks (3 apiece for both starters). So starting pitching was pretty much a push, and it became a battle of bullpens. The Sox ended up winning the battle and the war (if one game can be considered a war), surrendering only 4 runs over the final 6 frames while the Blue Jays allowed 6.

I watched the last 3 innings, but most of the fun stuff had already happened. I did tune in to see that, yet again, "backup" catcher Jason Varitek led the barrage with 4 RBI, all on singles. Pedroia had a great night too, going 3-for-6 with 3 runs, 2 RBI, and 2 SB. It was nice to see Bard and Papelbon close out the game so smoothly, particularly after all the offense earlier.

But as usual, I'm drawn back to Jason Varitek. It seems like every day his numbers get better. Is this all really happening? Is this really the same guy that's been slowly deteriorating, like the carrot under my porch steps, for the last half decade? Sportswriters everywhere are predicting his re-entry any day now. The day when his astronomical numbers plummet back to Earth. For the moment though he's putting Victor Martinez to shame. Victor is historically a slow starter though, so he'll probably heat up at some point and Varitek will surely cool down, but as I was telling someone the other day, it's been a long, long time since I've had this much confidence in The Captain.

He's only 38, could he be having his breakout season?

Two Walk-Offs? Huzzah!

I love it when IBBs come back to bite teams in the ass. I wish I could find a list of all the times the Sox have made a pitcher/manager pay. It was particularly satisfying in all regards tonight, as seeing Nippert walk a 5'4" second baseman to get to the Sox cleanup hitter was pretty surreal. This was a solid win for the Red Sox. They probably should have won the game in nine innings. I mean, Beckett needs to give up less than six runs moving forward, but salvaging a victory was still very exciting. I like Mike Lowell at DH. I just see him at the dish and feel like he's ready to eat, er, hit. And it's sad because Lowell is older than Ortiz. Sigh.

Josh on Josh Action - 4/21/2010: Josh Hamilton hits his first home run of the season off of Josh Beckett. 6/2/1999: Josh Hamilton is selected first overall by the Tampa Bay Rays, while Josh Beckett is taken second by the Florida Marlins. Who did the Sox take in the '99 amateur draft? That's right, this guy:

Rick Asadoorian

Scooter-o - Credit where it's due, I've been tough on Marco so far this year, but advancing to second base on a flyout to the centerfielder was pretty awesome.

Down in the Rominors - Kevin Romine has two sons in the minor leagues, including the Yankees' #2 prospect, catcher Austin Romine. No word yet on whether Randy Kutcher's son, Buster, has been signed by any organization.

Asadoorag - I know that you're all begging for more, so: Rick Asadoorian was drafted out of Northbridge High School in Massachusetts. In 2001, he was sent to the St. Louis Cardinals for Dustin Hermanson, who sent him to the Rangers two years later for Esteban Yan and cash. Then there's this interesting tidbit that I found: "Asadoorian never forgot his New England roots, and booked a flight home to Boston to witness the 2004 World Series parade." So, yeah, he's got that going for him. Which is nice.

YEEEEESSSSS

Back-to-back walk-off wi-ns.

Liriano

It appears that Francisco Liriano is back. After making the Sox look foolish last Thursday, hurling 7 innings of four hit ball and striking out 8, he worked 8 scoreless inning against the Indians tonight. In each of his starts he has allowed just 4 base hits, one extra-base hit per game, and no long balls.

Liriano will probably never return to his 2006 form. He was almost unhittable as a starter that year, winning 12 games in a little over 3 months after being moved from the bullpen. In July he collected 55 strikeouts while going 4-1 for the second straight month. Had he not been injured in August that year, he could have won the Cy and almost definitely would have taken the Rookie of the Year. He even had the lowest ERA in the majors, though not quite enough innings to qualify.

Tommy John surgery and location problems resulted in a slow, bumpy road back to securing a rotation spot. His fastball has lost about 5 mph, and his slider no longer has the vicious movement and speed it once did. He has to rely more on off speed stuff and accuracy now.

He was a member of Mighty Like a Rose in 2008 and again in 2009, but was just a hindrance in the fantasy realm. This year, someone else scooped him up and I can only watch as he finally starts pitching how all the ESPN experts said he would in '08 and then again in '09.

Even though he's burned me thrice (I consider myself burned for a third time for passing on him in the draft this year) I still hope he becomes an ace.

Mcdonald

I may be alone here, but I am going to throw this out anyway. I did not see any of the game yesterday. I did read about the game and what D. Mcdonald did. I just checked the box score today and it appears he has hit another home run. Just now I decided to click on his player card and was astonished by his appearance. I will not get into too much detail, but I was definitely picturing a more John Mcdonald-esque appearance. In hindsight the name Darnell should have been a clue. Anyway, keep up the good work D-Mac.

EDITOR'S NOTE:

I can see where you were confused, Joe.

A steal per inning

The Sox gave up nine steals yesterday! You kiddin' me? Only a handful of teams have done that in the last 60 years. There is no way that the Sox can contend if they cannot throw out a runner. I am certain that they will go 0-18 against the Rays this season. The Sox are very lucky that they have Ellsbury. I think if Ellsbury were on a different AL East team he would steal 70 bases in the 18 games against the Sox alone. Of course, it is not all the Catcher's fault. However, it is clear that V-Mart and V-Tek suck at throwing runners out. Let's get the best available defensive catcher we can find. I am not sure if the solution is in the minors. Isn't there a guy named Exposito? Perhaps, Paul Bako. He has thrown out 31% of runners in his career. Not bad. Maybe they could trade for a Molina. Let's say they do get another Catcher. Move V-Mart to first and Youk to third. What do you do with Beltre and Scutaro? Beats me. If Beltre is the best defensive 3B why can't he play short? Does anyone ever move from third to short.......I don't think so. I wonder how he would fare? This will never happen, but I bet he could play it pretty well. Scutaro would be back into a platoon role.

Darnell Darns Sox

Darnell McDonald delivered in two clutch situations to carry the Red Sox to a 7-6 come from behind victory over the Rangers tonight. After a 2-run homer in the 8th, Darnell came up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and the bases loaded and singled home the winning run. It was a thrilling comeback, invigorating even, but one question remains.

Who the hell is Darnell McDonald?

Darnell was drafted by the Orioles in the first round of the 1998 amateur draft. He progressed slowly through the minors, struggling with his average but collecting stolen bases by the barrel. He bounced around a bit, finally earning a promotion to the big league squad in 2004, though he failed to show much promise in the show, hitting just .156 in 17 games with the O's.

Signed by the Indians, shipped to the Nationals, and later swapped to the Twins, he did get called up to play a few games in Minnesota when Michael Cuddyer was injured late in the season. In 2009, he actually made the Reds Opening Day roster, but it didn't last long, and he was soon sent back to the minors.

Fast forward to yesterday when Jacoby Ellsbury goes on the DL. The Sox purchased Darnell's contract from the Reds, and Darnell is instantly added to the major league roster. What happens next, you already know.

So a couple cups of coffee over the years, nothing permanent, but tonight he made what could turn out to be an incredible impact on the Red Sox season. The Sox were desperately in need for a win. They probably didn't deserve to win tonight. I haven't asked the Elias Sports Bureau, but I doubt many teams have won games in which they've allowed the opposing team to steal NINE BASES. The combination of Victor and Wakefield is disastrous for stolen base prevention, but enough about that, let's remain happy and optimistic in light of a great night at Fenway.

My man Joe Castiglione said it best on the radio tonight, and I'm paraphrasing here, but he said you just don't see that type of thing in other sports, where a guy you've never heard of gets a chance to be a hero like that. It reminds me why I love baseball so much.

Sometimes it takes a game like this to turn everything around. Go Sox.

Rays Blaze Sox Jocks

Not much to say at the moment. I've been walking around with the junior high dance feeling in my gut all weekend after watching the Sox get swept by the Rays at Fenway for the first time ever. In a 4-game series no less.

Bad starting pitching, anemic offense, porous defense. No doubt about it the Rays are a great team, but they made the Sox look like a AAA squad. As usual, the Rays went wild on the base paths, 9-for-9 in the series last time I heard. The Sox on the other hand, didn't do much running at all.

Seems like everyone but Pedroia is in a slump. In fact, the Sox have only delivered twice in the last 32 times with runners in scoring position. Both hits? Fourth outfielder Jeremy Hermida.

I could go on and on but there's no point. Just have to hope the Sox can get healthy and confident and win the next few series to get back into contention.

Varitek > Victor > Kutcher > Ortiz

Let me preface this by saying that I love David Ortiz. I think he's one of the players I'll most remember playing and rooting for as a Sox fan...

David Ortiz needs to go! It's getting very close to that time. I want him to hit. I want each random double that he smokes to really be the sign that Papi is back. Castiglione and Francona and Remy all insist that these two-base hits portend a hot streak that is going to prove all of us naysayers wrong. But there has been no hot streak! If we want to continue giving David Ortiz a chance to swing himself out of another season-opening slump, that's fine. Go for it. Bat him ninth, though. Pinch hit for him when the game is on the line and Mike Lowell is sitting on the bench. Treat him just like you would the ninth batter in an NL lineup until he starts hitting like he's designated to do. The brutal failure of Saturday evening's Friday game's eleventh inning is too much to bear. I don't like seeing Ortiz as the goat in a situation where the only thing he has to do is hit a flyball to end the game and he can't even be counted on to make a productive out. Since it seems like Ortiz is sticking around for now, I guess my only hope is that the courts award the 5-hole in the Red Sox lineup to Jay-Z as part of the damages awarded in the pending "40-40" lawsuit (And shouldn't Ortiz have named his club "50-1"? Because even at his best "40-40" and Papi never resided in the same sentence.). Sigh. At least I was able to get in a Randy Kutcher reference here. I would rather have him at DH than Ortiz right now.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox suck either way. The season's pretty much over.

Varitek > Victor

Varitek has hit another home run tonight. I'm happy for the captain. In other news tonight, I'm sitting here in-between the top and bottom halves of the ninth, and have been for an hour. Why send a game into rain delay with the home team coming up for their last raps? I'm irritated. The other noteworthy event of the game was the play where Youkilis was thrown out at the plate for inexplicably being waved around by Tim Bogar. Why not bring back Wendell "Send 'im in" Kim? Or Joe Reardon.

Great, now they've called the game. So, I've sat here listening to Tom Caron talk about hockey for nothing...

4/15/10 Sox take it up the ass in new stadium

This is what happens when I don't watch/listen/follow a Sox game. The team clearly needs me.

The Sox were pounded by the Twins in Minnesota 8-0 today. According to the box score, Liriano had no trouble with the "monster" part of the lineup (batters 3-thru-6) as they combined to go 2-for-15 on the day. In fact, you take the hot swinging Pedroia out of the equation and the Sox only collected 3 hits. Looks like Liriano's back.

The box score also says J.D. Drew struck out three times. In his defense, two of them were swinging strike outs.

The Sox could really use Ellsbury back in the leadoff spot and they could also you some more production at DH. Perhaps Francona should take a page out of the Tony LaRussa songbook and start concentrating on match ups, getting Mikey Lowell in there more often against lefties.

At least the Astros finally won a game.

4/10/10 JV Makes Varsity

Jason Varitek hit 2 dingers to propel the Sox to an 8-3 victory over the Royals. Beckett pitched much better than he did on opening day, limiting the damage in a difficult 7th inning and holding the Royals to 3 runs over 7 frames with a walk and 4 strikeouts for the win.

Lowell, Varitek, and Hermida all got the start tonight as Boston fiddled with their lineup for the first time this year. Appears that it paid off, though Victor suffered in the DH spot, going 0-for-5 and grounding into a double play in the 5th when it looking like the Sox were about to break the game open. Of course they did later on, getting late inning homers from Youk, Pedroia, and V-Tek.

Greinke wasn't bad, but he did hang two consecutive breaking pitches in the 5th inning that the Sox sent over the wall in right.

There was a scary moment in the bottom of the 7th when a David DeJesus come backer grazed Beckett's head. An inch or two to the left and it could have killed him. But as Charlie from the Mighty Ducks said to Coach Bombay, and inch or two to the right and it would have missed the net completely. On the radio, Dave O'Brien said that Beckett reacted "as if the ball hit him," so it wasn't until later on that I found out it actually did. From the replay it's clear that the ball changed direction after ricocheting off the back of his head. Frightening stuff- I'm glad he's OK.

It was Jason's first multiple homer game since May 28th of last season, when he connected twice off Twins pitcher Anthony Swarzak, a game also started and won by Beckett.

Tomorrow it's Buccholz and Meche. Hopefully the Sox can keep the bats awake and leave KC with a 3-4 record.

Criss-Cross - You Do My Division, I'll Do Yours

Over the last couple of days, I've seen divisional realignment mentioned in two different articles. Apparently, it is something that Bud Selig and Major League Baseball are entertaining the thought of. I put a lot of thought into this topic, before coming up with my opinion fifteen seconds later. I'm all in favor of the idea. I think there could be some very interesting scenarios if MLB decides to shuffle the cards a little bit. I'll cut to the chase, here are the divisions that I came up with:

AL East	AL Central	AL West
Toronto Blue Jays	Cleveland Indians	Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox	Cincinnati Reds	Colorado Rockies
Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	Arizona Diamondbacks
Florida Marlins	Minnesota Twins	Houston Astros
	Detroit Tigers	Texas Rangers
NL East	NL Central	NL West
New York Yankees	Chicago White Sox	Oakland Athletics
New York Mets	Chicago Cubs	San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles	Kansas City Royals	Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals	St. Louis Cardinals	Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies	San Diego Padres
	Pittsburgh Pirates

The article I first read on this topic was using the Red Sox' and Yankees' dominance over the last seven years as a reason for the divisions to be realigned. "The Red Sox and Yankees are both always in the playoffs, nobody else ever has a chance at the Wild Card, blah blah blah." Anyway, I don't agree that trading the Sox or Yankees to the AL Central would be any kind of solid solution to that "problem". You're still going to have both teams making the playoffs, now you're just screwing the Royals and giving the O's the slightest glimmer of false hope. And if you're going to all the trouble of changing things around, let's go crazy!

I grouped the thirty MLB teams into three geographic zones: east, west and central (with the central being a bit under-filled so I could use the AL Central and NL Central as something like "flex divisions"). I also ordered my lists from northernmost team to southernmost team. After that, I started grouping together teams that would make really good rivals or who were already really good rivals.

The simplest division was probably the NL West. I decided to put all the California teams in the same division. In this economy, cutting down on travel costs can't hurt. You can't split up the Dodgers and Giants, but wouldn't you want to see the A's-Giants and Angels-Dodgers eighteen times a year, too? Plus, there's the Padres. Somebody must have a rivalry with them, too.

Staying with the western theme, the next division I rounded up was the AL West. Unfortunately, this division's rivalries aren't nearly as riveting. I did pair up the Astros and Rangers, but the other three teams don't have any real connection to each other that I can think of. I could conceivably trade the Mariners to the NL West for the Padres and I wouldn't consider it much of a difference competition-wise. The travel aspect would make more sense anyway. San Diego is much closer to Arizona and Texas than Seattle is. It all pretty much boiled down to: "It would be neat to have a division made up of all California teams."

I decided to break apart the Sox-Yankees divisional rivalry. They could still play every year in interleague play, but it opens up the possibility for, possibly, one day, a Boston Red Sox versus New York Yankees World Series. I dumped the Yankees into the NL East along with their crosstown rivals the Mets. The Big Apple could enjoy their subway series six times a season. I wanted to put the Phillies and Pirates duo in this division also, but ultimately decided to go with the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals. The Atlanta Braves made it into the division, too, based primarily on the fact that no baseball team plays in Savannah, GA.

The AL East. This division ends up being the puny 4-team grouping. The Red Sox are here, along with the Blue Jays, for some reason. Tampa Bay and their new rival, Florida, settles into the AL East as well. I think the Sox-Rays rivalry could be really entertaining as long as the Rays maintain their current philosophy, which seems to be working quite well for them. The Marlins are a pretty young, yet poor, team, that could benefit from eighteen visits per year from the Red Sox and eighteen heated intrastate grudge matches with Tampa.

For the NL Central, I knew that I needed to put six teams in here to leave each circuit with an even number of teams. My list of pairs still on the board were: Phillies/Pirates (destined to be a lopsided rivalry), White Sox/Cubs, Indians/Reds, Royals/Cardinals (a bit of a stretch, maybe). Then I presumed that the Twins and Brewers might be a good head-to-head pairing. And Michigan's up there, too, so why not add the Tigers in and call it, I believe the term is, ménage à trois. I'm also vaguely aware of some kind of Cubs-Cardinals rivalry that I suppose should be maintained. For that reason, Chicago, Chicago, Kansas City and St. Louis all go into the NL Central. Since the upper midwestern trio can't fit in there, they'll have to wait. I settled on Philadelphia and Pittsburgh rounding out the division. Which leaves...

The AL Central consists of the Detroit Tigers, the Minnesota Twins, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cleveland Indians and the Cincinnati Reds. I think this division provides for some intriguing matchups. I guess.

In closing, I'd like to point out that the DH must be adopted by the NL for this procedure to work (Hank Aaron agrees). There are plenty of new rivalries to be formed out there, and it might be time to start exploring some of them. I'm 29 years old and a fan of the Red Sox, but I could imagine a day when the Sox-Yanks rivalry has just drained the life out of me. People in other states must be so tired of hearing about it. Abolishing it (even if only for a little while) might not be the most awful idea ever. Major League Baseball in the last twenty years has gone from two divisions to three, added a wild card playoff round, ignored steroids, instituted interleague play and killed off the Expos. It's not like they are afraid of making bold moves and big changes. The interleague action has pretty much minimized the divide between AL and NL, so swapping teams back and/or forth wouldn't be entirely shocking to the system. While I don't think Selig and the gang will do anything more than discuss realignment, I think it's an idea that makes good sense.

4/09/10 Royals top Sox 4-3 in KC

Sox lost again tonight, falling to the Royals after giving up the tying and go-ahead runs in the bottom of the 8th inning. The bullpen has not been strong for the Sox over the last couple games. Tomorrow night they're going up against Greinke so it's not going to be any easier. They'll have to score early and hope that Beckett brings better stuff than he did on Opening Day.

At least the game didn't take 3 1/2 hours tonight, so Joe "Seconds, Please" West should be happy.

Fantasyland

Last night I watched Fantasyland, a movie about fantasy baseball that follows one Jed Latkin as he competes in the most competitive fantasy baseball league in the country, Tout Wars. This super competitive league is composed of baseball writers and statisticians, most of them demigods in the world of fantasy baseball. The movie was inspired by the success of a book of the same title, written by Sam Walker, which chronicled the author's first year in Tout Wars. In the book, Sam travels around and talks to most of the players on his team, and talks to managers and coaches looking for inside scoops on platoons and injuries and what not.

In the movie, it's the same story line, except this time Jed Latkin is the rookie that all the other managers want to shoot down. I won't go into too much detail, but this Jed guy is a douche bag. It's rare that I detest a character so much in a film, and this was a real guy in a documentary. After reading the book I was amazed at how obsessed Walker was with his fantasy team. Jed puts him to shame. Jed places fantasy in front of everything else in his life. He completely ignores his wife and in one scene he actually tries to swing a trade while she's in the delivery room giving birth to twins. Pretentious and tactless, he fits in perfectly with the cadre of losers that consider themselves kings of the fantasy baseball realm.

The movie is entertaining to say the least, but it left the same acrid taste in my mouth that the book did. It pointed out how silly and frivolous fantasy baseball is, and how much time we all waste scouring box scores and clicking through pages of stats. Of course, while I type this I'm refreshing box scores and watching the Twins/Angels game on MLBtv to make sure the Twins bullpen doesn't blow Slowey's outing. Even so, in 2009 I was in 3 fantasy leagues, 4 if you count the 1-on-1 league that outlawed adding players or trading )it was more of a draft challenge than a league) and this year I'm in only two, both AL only. So it's not like I'm getting worse.

There's one scene that is particularly funny and telling. Sam Walker, who also plays a major role in the movie, sits beside his wife while she imparts a little story about her husband, and the moment she knew he was sick with the fantasy disease. She came home and the house next door or across the street, I can't remember, was on fire and they were evacuating everyone in the area. Her husband was still sitting in their apartment watching the ball game because he had some fantasy players involved. That is some kind of twisted dedication.

You can watch the film for free at snagfilms.com by clicking here.

Premature Statistical Analysis

I've combed over some stats this afternoon and found a few that I thought were interesting:

The Brewers Got Zauned - Gregg Zaun has grounded into a double-play, on-average, once every nine pitches this season.

Keep The Meter Running, I Won't Be Here Long - Orlando Cabrera is seeing 1.77 pitches per at-bat, which falls in line with the 1.86 seasons he spends with each ball club over his career.

I'll Take The One That Comes With The Pinstriped Pillbox Hat - Assume that both Vernon Wells and Garrett Jones stay on their pace to hit 162 home runs this season. The Blue Jays would be paying $77,160.49 for each dinger while the Pirates buy theirs for the bargain basement price of $2,623.46.

Workin' Harden? - Rich Harden's K/9 is 19.64. The next closest starting pitcher? Ian Kennedy, more than five full strikeouts behind Rich.

Or Hardenly Workin'? - Rich Harden's BB/9 is 12.27.

And Your Punishment? $68,000,000.00 - Josh Beckett's WHIP of 2.36 is the worst (tied) of any starter whose team plays in one of the United States. Players that pitch in the District of Columbia are a different story.

On The Schnide - Nick Johnson has an OBP of .400 and a batting average of .000 after 15 plate appearances. Josh Hamilton has struck out in six of his eight plate appearances so far, notching a grand total of zero base hits. Hamilton's average draft position in ESPN Fantasy Leagues is 79.1 versus 233.8 for Johnson. I'm not sure what I'm trying to prove with this info, just found it curious.

Bold Prediction - Adrian Gonzalez of the offensively-explosive Padres, will finish the season with 42 home runs and 42 runs batted in.

Happy Birthday Beltre

Tonight as Boston introduces John Lackey to the green pastures of Fenway Park, and bandwagoners and lifers all over New England and New York sit on the ends of their seats and cuss at radios and TVs, somebody is having a birthday.

Boston’s new third baseman, Adrian Beltre, turns 31 today.

Beltre, signed as a free agent in January by the Red Sox, has gotten off to a good start in his new home. On Opening Day, Beltre played flawless defense and collected one hit in three at bats. He also delivered Boston’s first run of the year, hitting a sacrifice fly about 390 feet to dead center field. On Tuesday he went 2-for-4 and stole a base in the bottom of the 2^nd.

Many fans consider Beltre overrated, which is an understandable sentiment when you look at his dramatic drop-off in production following the giant contract he signed with Seattle in 2005. After posting a career year with the Dodgers the previous season, Seattle signed him to a five-year, $64 million dollar deal. Seemed fair for a player that put up a season for the ages in 2004, hitting .334, knocking in 121, scoring over 100 runs and finishing with an OPS above 1.000, and hitting 48 homers. And these offensive numbers happened while Beltre displayed Gold Glove worthy defense at 3B (Not to mention Beltre was just 25 at the time). Unfortunately, the power, the batting average- pretty much all the eye-popping offensive numbers- were an aberration, and after moving a thousand miles up the West Coast, his numbers reverted back to his pre-breakout days.

But what Beltre did in Seattle can hardly be considered a failure. Not only has he generally been regarded as the best defensive third baseman in the majors over the last half decade, but before an injury ridden 2009, in four years in Seattle he averaged 24 home runs, over 150 hits, and 88 runs batted in hitting in the middle of a very weak Mariner's lineup.

I won’t get into his incredible UZR and Range Factor numbers, because I’ve already posted a blog on that subject. I had a link to an excellent compilation of defensive wizardry by Beltre in his Seattle days but MLB Advanced Media made a copyright claim on it so it's gone.

Adrian has also been a solid contributor to numerous fantasy teams I’ve managed over the years. He helped Some Machine finish 5^th in a Yahoo AL-only league in 2006, limped along with White Plague for 10^th (out of 12 teams) in another season in Yahoo, and played briefly for Mighty Like A Rose in 2008 before being swapped straight up for Bobby Abreu. Abreu is long gone now, traded with a draft pick for Grady Sizemore over a year ago, and I was fortunate enough to draft Beltre this year, putting him back in the Brown/Yellow/Orange jerseys of the Mighty. I envision a good year from Beltre. 30 home runs wouldn't be impossible, and his RBI total should improve considerably if he continues to hit 6^th or 7^th in the Boston lineup.

Beltre made headlines last season when he suffered a twisted testicle in a 14-inning game in August. Beltre is a rare infielder in that he doesn’t wear a cup as he feels it limits his mobility. He ended up going on the DL, and I read that Ken Griffey Jr. managed to get those in charge of the PA system at Safeco Field to play the waltz from The Nutcracker Suite when Beltre came to the plate in his first game back.

Adrian’s numbers in the field can be misleading. He usually collects more errors than most of his contemporaries solely because he gets to balls that other third baseman could only dream of reaching. He’s occasionally fooled badly by sliders, and doesn’t have the most patience at the plate, but he should benefit from the unusual measurements of Fenway Park. As of this moment, he’s on pace to knock in 162 runs and bat .429.

Tonight’s prediction for Adrian: 2-for-4, 2 2B, 2 RBI

4/6/10 Marco Bootaro: Yankees beat Sox 6-4 in Boston

A tough loss for Boston tonight. Perhaps a game the Red Sox should have won, but they probably shouldn't have taken Sunday's contest, so it's hard to feel too bad about it. Two games into the season and things are already evening out.

At 7 I started following the game in the library at SMCC, "watching" the game on MLB.com's Gameday while I read a novel about hermaphrodites and incest. Then I drove over to pick Breanne up from the hospital, catching the game on XM radio to-and-from Portland. When I got back to OOB I turned Gameday back on and listened to the Spanish radio signal. My Spanish is not great, but I did pickup some infinitives and several last names. I finished my media buffet at the gym, watching the last 2 1/2 inning on NESN while I rode a stationary bike. The game rolled to a sweaty and unfortunate finish, soiled with a Marco Scutaro error that would have gotten the Sox out of a sticky situation in the 7th, and culminating with a Robinson Cano bomb to right field. Mariano wasn't about to blow a 2-run lead to the bottom of the order, and other than a Scutaro double to left center that probably should have been caught, the Sox went quietly in the ninth.

In the bottom of the 8th, with Marte on the mound and Youk at second with no outs, I would have pinch hit Mike Lowell. Ortiz put a shabby swing on a fastball, popping it up to shallow center, before Joba came in to strike out Drew and Beltre. Ortiz can't handle lefties anymore, and Francona has a perfectly good right-handed hitter just sitting there on the bench getting grayer. Might as well use the guy.

What if the Sox had won the Series in '09?

If the Sox had won the series in '09 how would the offseason have went? I would assume it would have went a lot different. Ever heard the old saying "if it ain't broke don't fix it"?

Here is my guess as to how the roster may have looked going into the 2010 season.

1. Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2. Dustin Pedroia 2B
3. Victor Martinez C
4. Kevin Youkilis 3B
5. Jason Bay LF
6. David Ortiz DH
7. JD Drew RF
8. Nick Johnson 1B
9. Marco Scutaro SS

SP Josh Beckett
SP Jon Lester
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP Tim Wakefield
SP Clay Bucholz
SU Daniel Bard
CL Jonathan Papelbon

The first thing anyone will notice is that Jason Bay is in Boston and John Lackey is nowhere to be found. Who knows where Lackey went but he didn't come to Boston. The Sox could not let go of their top HR-hitter and RBI-man from their WS Championship team. Lucchino would certainly have been lynched by Boston fans. Once the Sox decided to get rid of the horribly inadequate defensive (even though he didn't make an error, he still sucked) player in Bay it snowballed into defense all the way (i.e. adding Beltre, Cameron). I tinkered with the SS position between Gonzo and Scutaro. Gonzo hit pretty well down the stretch for the Sox and of course is solid defensively, however the $6 million option was too much to pay. Nick Johnson is signed in order to move Youk to 3B. Kotchman is let go. Johnson can play decent D at 1B I am assuming since he must have done something in the NL for all those years.

My professional opinion is that in a 7-game series the real 2010 Sox would beat this team 4-2. Lackey would outduel Dice-K easily in games 3 & 6 (3 horses can take the 4th starter out of the equation).

A Grand Opening

While I packed the bucket of wiffle balls into the back of the car, a headphoned jogger passed the house and called out, "Happy Easter!" My first thought was: Don't you mean Happy Opening Day?


Night, Day, whatever, Opening ____ was Sunday, between the 2009 World Champion Yankees and the hometown Red Sox. It's all I've been thinking about for weeks. And while I shovelled fat slabs of pink ham and white onions, puck-sized biscuits, genetically enhanced potatoes, and probably other things I was hardly aware of into my mouth, I inched closer and closer to the greatest moment of the year.

The game really had it all. What began as a disappointing pitching performance by Boston's "ace," ended with an exciting comeback and an encouraging performance from the Sox offense. But let's talk about Beckett.

Beckett was not effective. The Yankees were letting his sissy curve sputter through the opposite batters box and just sitting on the fastball. Like my brother said during the game, the guy had the whole off season to work on his pitches, he's getting paid millions of dollars to learn how to throw these pitches, and he can't take the time to learn how to actually throw a curve ball? It was really pitiful. It was like watching me try to throw a screwball at Jacuzzi Park. Yeah, I can get it to bite 1-of-10 tries, which is good enough to strike out your Joe Reardons and Dan Allaires, but this is the majors. If Beckett has to rely solely on a fastball and change up, he will be dog meat in the AL east, or fragrant meat as they call it in China.

The infield was super. I'm going to disregard the failed attempt to stop the double steal. Victor probably shouldn't have throw the ball to 2nd, so it's hard to say whether Scutaro was in the wrong for intercepting it and not being at the base. Granted, the Yankees had sent Gardner two pitches earlier, so you would think the element of surprise had vanished. But infield play was clean and fine. I think the Sox possess the best defensive infield in the majors, and offensively I think it stacks up against most teams as well. It won't have the fire power of the Yankees infield but it'll be a hell of a lot slicker on the diamond.

Ellsbury really pissed me off on Sunday. I know it's only one game, but you've got to swing the bat with guys on base and 2 outs. When he came up in the 5th and took 4 straight pitches to go down looking, with two men in scoring position, I wanted to pitch my throw blanket right through my dad's giant TV. The force required to do such a thing was beyond me, so I can only complain about the lack of fundamentals. Did Ellsbury really think he was going to work a walk in that situation? Off CC? You need to be up there hacking. Force the defense to make a play- this to me was the most aggravating moment of the game. Worse even than Posada's lame 300 ft HR down the right field line. The Sox already have J.D. Drew to stand there and take pitches 1/12 off the plate.

What can be said about Pedroia's HR? That could easily go down as one of the most exciting moments of the year. When he turned on it I thought it was foul. Of course, it wasn't, and it appeared that Pedroia shouted "Fuck Yeah!" as he pumped his fist and rounded first base. He also supplied the insurance RBI in the 8th on an opposite field poke. How could anyone not love this guy? Hopefully his performance portends another MVP caliber season and a year of inspiring comebacks for the Sox.

Best of all, was that seriously the Yankee's bullpen? Damaso Marte and Chan Ho Park are the go-to guys when the game is on the line? It became a contest of bullpens after both starters suffered reasonably early exits. The Sox bullpen struggled a bit too, but didn't look nearly as penetrable as that of the Yankees. Joba didn't have his best stuff but he'll probably succeed, being back in the setup role. Marte had awful control, and with a weak defensive catcher behind the plate, bad things are bound to happen. Marte did finish 2009 with a 9.45 ERA, so the Yankees shouldn't be too surprised.

In closing, I'm very excited about the 2010 Sox. I stand by my pre-season prediction that the Sox will win 99 games this year, and the AL East, before going on to the World Series to face the Cardinals.