Two Bad Traders

I haven't written anything in a while, and I have lots of baseball-related thoughts on this particular evening. So, expect some kind of miscellaneous, rambling article soon. But quite briefly, I'd like to touch on something that is really irritating to me: insulting fantasy baseball trade offers.

Now, I'm not talking about your standard JoeReardon (for those unfamiliar, a JoeReardon is a trade offer that is so outrageous that it implies the sender thinks you've never watched a baseball game). Those I can laugh off. I'm talking about when a manager offers you a trade, then within a very short amount of time offers you a second trade, with very similar pieces, that is clearly worse. For example, I got this offer today in a 12-team, AL-only keeper league:

My team would trade:

• David Price
• 7th Round Draft Pick

My team would receive:

• Erick Aybar
• Trevor Cahill
• 8th Round Draft Pick

I wasn't particularly interested in this trade, not being altogether high on Erick Aybar, but it's certainly not an insulting offer. Fifteen minutes later, I was offered this:

My team would trade:

• David Price

My team would receive:

• Erick Aybar
• 2nd Round Draft Pick

About three hours later, I received this offer:

My team would trade:

• David Price
• 3rd Round Draft Pick

My team would receive:

• Trevor Cahill
• 2nd Round Draft Pick
• 9th Round Draft Pick

Let's ignore the fact that Cahill is owned in 10.6% of leagues while Price and Aybar are both owned in 98% of them, which includes mixed leagues. Let's suppose we suspend our disbelief and say that Trevor Cahill is AS valuable as Erick Aybar. The third trade offer says to me that at some point since the second offer was sent (three hours ago), David's stock has dropped so far that if I still want to pull the trigger on this deal I'm going to have to sweeten the pot.

The convoluted point I am trying to make is that if you're going to offer me a trade for someone, start with your worst offer and work your way up. I'm not desperately trying to unload David Price and worrying that his value is dropping. I'm not going to panic and jump on your latest offer just because your offers keep getting worse.

Here is a mathematical representation of the three trade offers using Average Draft Position and draft pick selection numbers. I'll assign a value represented by 1000/ADP or 1000/Pick #.

Erick Aybar = EA

ADP: 77.4

Calculated Value: 12.92

Trevor Cahill = TC

ADP: 119.85

Calculated Value: 8.34

David Price = DP

Trade offer number one supposes that David Price's worth is equivalent to this equation:

DP+7th Rounder (4.95)=EA+TC+8th Rounder (4.78)

DP=12.92+8.34+4.78-4.95

David Price's perceived value: 21.09 (roughly equivalent to an ADP of 47.4)

Trade offer number two, fifteen minutes later:

DP=EA+2nd Rounder (7.30)

DP=12.92+7.30

David Price's perceived value: 20.22 (roughly equivalent to an ADP of 49.5)

Uh-oh. David's price seems to be dropping. Maybe it will rally at the end of the day, like the stock market. Let's see offer number three:

DP+3rd Rounder (6.80)=TC+2nd Rounder (7.30)+9th Rounder (4.57)

DP=8.34+7.30+4.57-6.80

David Price's perceived value: 13.41 (roughly equivalent to an ADP of 74.6)

So, in three short hours, David Price dropped 28 slots in value. That's a pretty scary trend. Maybe I should unload him to the next manager who offers me an untested pitcher on a mediocre ball club whose K/9 rate is only 4.53 higher than mine is. Maybe not.

David Price's real ADP? About 82.95, which isn't the point and still doesn't make any of these offers particularly good deals.