AL East Predictions

Baseball Oxygen will be laying out predictions for each division in baseball and we will begin with the AL East.

Boston 99-63
Naysayers will say their nay, but this team is built to win. Sporting the best defense in sports and owning a rotation that resembles the 2004 Championship team, the Sox had a very productive and successful offseason. Not biting on expensive sluggers like Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, the Sox gathered up some great defensive players that should all prosper in the comfy confines of Fenway Park. Beltre, arguably the greatest defensive 3B of all-time, will see his offensive numbers improve with a move from baseball’s worst hitting park to one of it’s best. Many pundits think the Sox lineup lacks a big bat, but others would argue you don’t need that big bat when you’ve got Beltre, Scutaro, and Cameron as your 7-8-9 hitters. And if David Ortiz can play an entire season like he did the 2nd half of 2009, the big bat will be there already. The Red Sox also boast a rotation with three aces. Newly acquired John Lackey joins Josh Beckett and Jon Lester as probably the best 1-2-3 punch in the majors. Daisuke should also return to form as he tends to pitch well in even years (and non-WBC years). J.D. Drew should benefit from the on/off platoon with Jeremy Hermida and Ellsbury will be able to save his indigenous legs by moving over to left field with the introduction of gold glove caliber center fielder Mike Cameron.

If the Sox can stay healthy and get some good pitching from Matsuzaka and Clay “high hopes” Buchholz, the Sox will win the AL East.


New York 95-67
What superlative hasn’t been used to describe the 2010 Yankees? Oh here’s one: stupidest. I remember reading a few weeks ago that one Yankee’s season ticket holder was so disgusted by the home team’s offseason moves that he turned in his tickets at the box office. This is the year after they won a World Series! But I’m with this nameless fan; the Yankees brass effed up. They brought in Nick Johnson and Javier Vasquez, two players who have already established that they can’t deliver under the bright lights of NY. And of course their biggest acquisition, Curtis Granderson. This will prove to be a mistake. Granderson will be trying to pull the ball over the short right field fence every time he steps into the batter’s box in the Bronx, and he’ll pay for it. Yeah, he’ll jack some out, but he’ll fan and fly out in astronomical numbers too. He is not a disciplined young man. The rotation will be fine. CC will swallow up some tasty numbers, Burnett and Pettitte will be good for 25-30 wins combined, and whether it’s Hughes, Joba, or some guy the Steinbrenner’s buy when the Yankees go on a 3-game losing streak in April, the pitching will be adequate. The offense will unquestionably score enough runs. Texiera and A-Rod in the lineup together for a whole season is downright frightening. They should be better defensively with the addition of Curtis and the possibility of Brett Gardner playing in left field every day.


This team will be around in October.

Tampa Bay 84-78
Did the Rays miss their chance? After years of laboring in the AL East cellar, wringing out Yankees jerseys, folding (to the) Sox, and ironing Blue Jays bills, the Rays ejaculated their shame and won the East in 2008. They almost won the World Series too. Then they won 84 games last year, finishing a distant third. Was that the result of their “rebuilding” process? It’s hard to say. The Rays have a plethora of present stars and future stars, so they’re very hard to predict. Three of the guys in their rotation are former 1st round draft picks (Niemann, Garza, and Price, with Price being a former 1st overall) while James Sheilds has already established himself as no. 1 or no. 2 starter. Wade Davis, slotted for their 5th starter, threw a complete game shutout, with 10 Ks, in only his fourth major league start. Basically, if the rotation clicks, this team could win an assload of ballgames. And the Rays will score runs. B.J. Upton will canter under looping line drives and find his stroke at the plate, Longoria will continue to close the gap on A-Rod as the most dangerous 3B in the majors, and Carlos Pena should be good for 40 bombs.


If Bartlett and Zobrist were serious last year, the Rays should stay with the Yankers and Sox for most of the summer.

Baltimore 81-81
The Orioles could have the biggest turnaround of any American League team in the coming season. Nick Markakis, Nolan Reimold, Matt Weiters, and Adam Jones will be a year older and a year better adapted to the grind of a 162-game season. As always, Brian Roberts will get on base and jump start the offense, and if the O’s are lucky they’ll get 35 HR from Luke Scott and new first baseman, Garret Atkins, combined. They also have some much needed veteran presence in the infield and in the rotation, bringing back old fan favorite Miguel Tejada and getting Kevin Millwood from wherever the hell he was last. Like the Rays, this offense will score plenty of runs- it’s the rotation that will determine the Orioles’ fate. Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie will top out a rotation that includes super prospect Brian Matusz and righty youngsters Chris Tillman and Brad Bergensen.

If Tillman and Bergensen can hold their own in the unforgiving AL East, and new closer Mike Gonzalez can pick up where he left off with the Braves, the Orioles could break even in 2010.

Toronto 62-100
Things do not look hopeful in Toronto. You’ll recall that they shot out of the gate last year, thanks to surprisingly good pitching from several pitchers Blue Jays fans had never heard of. The same team went 18-32 in the summer months of July and August. What scares me most about the Blue Jays is their pitching. Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brendan Morrow, Brett Cecil, and Scott Richmond are penciled in for the starting rotation. Shaky at best. Roy Halladay is gone. Someone will have to explain to the Canadians that he is NOT allowed to pitch for two teams, and he won’t be lumbering out of the dugout once a series to salvage their dignity. The Blue Jays have several promising relievers but it won’t get that far. They'll be lots of mopping up to do. The offense should be fine- a handful of young players just entering their prime. However, I’m not sure we can expect Aaron Hill and Adam Lind to duplicate their 2009 numbers. Unless Vernon Wells starts earning his paycheck, the Jays won’t be able to outslug their opponents.

Maybe Cito will bring back Paul Moliter and Ricky Henderson and all the other HOFers from the early 90’s and the Jays will be fine, but it’s not something to count on.


Final AL East Standings:
Boston 99-63
New York 95-67
Tampa Bay 84-78
Baltimore 81-81
Toronto 62-100